The currently observed high level of inflation will increase in the coming quarters, reaching 12.1% year-on-year in Q3 2022. – estimates the NBP in its inflation report published on Friday. The central bank’s latest forecast puts consumer inflation at 10.8 percent in 2022.
- As recently as November 2021. In November 2021, the National Bank of Poland forecast inflation at 5.8%.
- As a result of the Russian aggression against Ukraine, the prices of energy and some agricultural commodities, which had already been growing dynamically, are significantly higher, the authors of the report estimate.
- The latest NBP forecast assumes that consumer inflation will reach 10.8% in 2022, 9% in 2023 and 4.2% in 2024.
The Inflation Report presents the Monetary Policy Council’s assessment of the macroeconomic processes affecting inflation. “The central scenario of the current projection is significantly influenced by the macroeconomic effects of Russia’s military aggression against Ukraine and related sanctions imposed on Russia,” – reads the latest March report.
The report assumes that at least some of the sanctions imposed by Western countries on Russia will be maintained over the projection horizon, and thus there will be no return to the status quo before the aggression in economic relations.
Analysts stress that as a direct result of the Russian aggression against Ukraine, the price quotations of energy raw materials and some agricultural raw materials on world markets are significantly higher, the prices of which were already dynamically increasing.
“In the conditions of dynamic growth of energy commodity prices in world markets, as a result of sanctions imposed on Russia, the currently observed high level of inflation will increase in the coming quarters and will reach 12.1 percent year-on-year in the third quarter of this year,” – the report reads.
“In the further horizon – along with a slowdown in GDP dynamics – the growth rate of the CPI index will already decrease,” – it reads further.